My Rules for Trading Crypto
Notes to my future self on when to sell and remembering what truly matters.
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There’s a lot of noise in crypto land, especially if you’re tuned in on social media.
Hype, new narratives, and the latest trends create immense FOMO. We feel as if we have to “do something”.
Although I speculate in altcoins, primarily to acquire more Bitcoin than I could have had I simply bought and held, it’s a nuanced strategy that requires finesse, timing, oversight, and of course, a bit of luck. It’s not recommended for the faint of heart.
I’ve made many mistakes in previous cycles (this is my third), most notably, drinking the cool aid of these trending narratives and not selling my alts in exchange for Bitcoin or stables at the top of the market.
This cycle I vowed to do the opposite, as I outlined in my previous article The Next Crypto Cycle when I reentered the market back in early 2023.
Seeing that we’ve already made headway, and my bets are starting to play out as I hoped, I find that with each leg up there’s a new distraction to pull me away from my original thesis. Put another way, the higher we go, the harder it gets to stick to my guns.
That’s why I’ve created a note for my future self. I set a reminder to read it at the beginning of every month to ensure I stay in check.
I’m sharing it with you not necessarily because I believe you should follow my rules, but because having any set of rules is better than none. I hope it inspires you to create your own and helps you stay sane out there!
Without further ado, here are my notes to my future self.
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Alec’s Crypto Trading Rules
Dear Alec of 2025,
Read these rules every month to stay on track toward your goals.
Current Market Update:
Bitcoin: $68,000
Ethereum: $3,750
Solana: $160
The sentiment is complacent. Few people care about Bitcoin, despite it being near all-time highs.
There’s a lot of resistance to moving higher from here. Retail is nowhere to be found, yet OG crypto natives are already maxed long. With no marginal buyers, prices are stagnant. Inflows are positive to the ETF, yet we struggle to make the next leg up.
We may stay here for a few months, but you’re patient. Hold the line. This cycle will very likely see 140K Bitcoin (2x from here), and likely 5x-20x in alts. It could take another year or longer.
You are buying speculative alts to acquire more Bitcoin. You will end the cycle holding only BTC and stables, chill in cash for a year, and buy the dip again.
Remember to sell when risk no longer justifies the reward. Selling alts and moving back into Bitcoin when everyone is bullish is the most important trade you will make. You don’t have to do anything until then.
How do you know when it’s time to sell?
When you don’t want to. When you start believing the hype. When you feel like you’re “going to get rich” by holding. When you’re projecting your future net worth. When you’re calculating your ROI or interest accrual.
Sell now. Sell everything. Move back into Bitcoin and stables.
You don’t want to, but it’s the right decision. The less you want to, the more right it is. It’s time.
Don’t believe the hype. Don’t buy into the product or tech. It’s almost all a scam and will lose 99% of its value when this bull market fades away.
You’ll sleep better, be happier, and WHealthier holding Bitcoin, knowing you’re in the best asset.
Finally, consider that you are at the top of the “Everything Bubble”, and are approaching a “Global Bust”.
Hedge with downside protection on puts. What’s the nonconsensus view? Are you prepared for it?
I hope you enjoyed my little crypto pep talk. What are you thinking about or betting on? Let me know in a comment or reply.
Alec